Hot Spots of Epidemic in Italy, Spain and France


The epidemic started in Lombardy, Italy and a few days later in the Madrid region of Spain. A third hot spot started a week later in the Grand Est region in NW France. 

The distribution of daily deaths has a similar shape and duration in the three regions.

These three distributions of daily death versus time show very similar shapes. The animated plots below,of daily deaths versus cumulative deaths,  for  other regions in the same countries indicate similar shapes for all region, except for those regions which have very low numbers of deaths.


Information extracted from Daily Death Distributions using Fits

A fitting procedure ( described at Data Analysis)is used to quantify the Daily Deaths distributions. An example of a fit is shown below.

From the fit function the times when the daily deaths first reach 10% of the peak value, the full peak value and the extrapolation to when it will be 10% of the peak value on the falling edge are extracted and shown in the histograms below for all the regions of Italy, France and Spain.